Digital collection and evaluation of expert opinion in virtual environment

Abstract

Using expert judgment as a source of information in engineering field is essential especially when there is few or no empirical or historical data available. Elicitation is a process to obtain expert information and use it as a dataset. There are different methods and techniques for eliciting the opinion of experts. The Expert judgment elicitation has been used for many years in oil and gas industry. However, expert judgment in a formal way is not systematically used in reliability engineering of oil and gas industry. Applying Digitalization which is a technological trend that is affecting a broad range of processes, businesses and industries, to the field of experts’ judgment elicitation could result in some positive impacts.

The purpose of this thesis is to identify and suggest an “expert judgment elicitation procedure” which is suitable for obtaining experts’ opinion about reliability of an equipment which is used in oil and gas industry and secondly, has the potential to be digitized. To accomplish the purpose, some of the available developed methods and procedures for expert judgment elicitation are reviewed and the criteria of a suitable method is extracted from a series of meetings and interviews with the manager of the case company. By using a 3 step approach a digital expert judgment elicitation method is suggested. Afterward, an illustrative example is used to show the application of the method. At the end, it is concluded that the suggested digital method has potential positive effects such as high efficiency and flexibility even though it can create some challenges. Moreover, if the goal of applying digitalization to the expert judgment elicitation process is to have an efficient and reliable elicitation process, we need to take in to account that analysts’ expertise, technology and management commitment can affect the outcome significantly.