Towards a risk-based decision support, parameterization of hindcast data to an offshore installation duration in offshore wind farm planning phase

Abstract

For the planning stage in any wind farm development, there are many concepts and locations to be analyzed at the point of cost, schedule, and project shareholders. Especially, the marine operation requires careful planning for an offshore wind farm. The reasonable numerical analysis can reduce costs and support decision-making properly to assess uncertainties from the project schedule or offshore installation method. Additionally, in the offshore project, environmental factors such as wave, wind, and currents are associated with uncertainty. In other words, the same project scope can make different results based on the field location. An increasing number of wind farms will be developed in the future, with the complexity of marine operations and correct decisions before a final investment decision. The objective of this thesis is to assess the uncertainty band of expected total duration for offshore installation, based on a specific parameter from hindcast data with operational limits derived from numerical modeling or previous work. The specific parameter will be developed from Hs with a weather window based on the lowest operational limit. Used randomly-chosen locations in the North Sea, simulation can be carried out to determine the weather window parameter of Hs to total offshore duration for the development field. Hindcast data from randomly-chosen locations affect the reduction of the simulated model as increasing sample data. Parameterizing hindcast data to estimate a total duration for offshore installation can be utilized to assess the validity of the installation method and total offshore campaign with the nameplate of a wind farm under specific environmental conditions. Through this, the suitable environmental conditions and its uncertainty band of offshore duration can be identified easily. Because the offshore duration can be directly connected to the chart period of the installation vessel or other equipment, this parameterization can be a baseline to estimate the cost.