Complex risk management in explosive-contaminated areas: Explosive remnants of war

Abstract

The primary goal of this PhD thesis is to contribute to the improvement of risk assessment and management in explosive-contaminated areas. In particular, the research objectives of the thesis relate to providing new perspectives regarding how to view and understand the complex nature of ERW risk. Additionally, by providing new knowledge and insight, this thesis aims to improve decision-making on a strategic, operational and tactical level. The traditional view of ERW-related risk typically focuses on the explosive threat the munitions represent if they are disturbed. Despite widespread knowledge of the fact that ERW exist in great numbers across the world, there appears to be minimal focus on the fact that the munitions also represent a broader and more diverse risk. ERWs have the potential to impose severe damage to life, health, the environment critical infrastructure and resources that significantly exceeds any initial blast radius damage, thus representing a critical societal threat. As our current risk approaches are generally predicated upon traditional probability-based risk assessments that are not particularly well suited for assessing complex risks, our uncertainty and lack of knowledge related to ERW risk assessments will inevitably result in assessments that are excessively based on assumptions and overgeneralisations. For example, several strategic decisions have been predicated on the assumptions that ERW will become harmless over time and that they are generally not considered to be a major societal threat. There is, however, no evidence to support this idea, and based on recent scientific studies, there is a growing concern that the risks may be increasing. To ensure judicious choices, the relevant decision makers require both correct and timely information. However, it appears that a substantial proportion of the information available regarding ERW-related risks is either erroneous or utterly deceptive. As ERW are constantly deteriorating, there is a time window during which action must be pursued to mitigate the associated risks. Consequently, there is an urgent need to raise awareness regarding both the extent of ERW, the risks associated with them, and how these risks can be effectively mitigated. This thesis contributes to this end by providing knowledge regarding ERW and their inherent risks, the development of a risk mitigation strategy and how ERW-related risks are managed today. Furthermore, it demonstrates how inadequacies in our strategies and risk mitigation techniques can result in unrealistic, inefficient and unsafe ERW risk management and increased societal and environmental risks. The scientific contribution of this thesis consists of five papers that have been either published or submitted for possible publication. The contents and contributions of the papers are briefly summarised below. It has always been recognised that ERW could represent a certain explosive risk if disturbed and that some of the constituents in the ammunition could be harmful to the environment. Recent research has proven that the complex risks related to ERW are composed of numerous factors; whilst the most prominent factor is regarded as the risk of an explosion, there is also a severe risk of environmental contamination, the risk of the explosives being misused for criminal activity and the risk of political, economic and societal consequences. Nonetheless, a tacit assumption amongst decision makers is that ERW are generally not considered to pose a major societal threat and that, if left alone, the ammunition will become harmless over time. Paper I discusses how this strategy has evolved over time and how new knowledge and broader risk perspectives can provide further insights regarding how the strategy could be revised. Furthermore, the paper explains how ERW-related risks could intensify rather than diminishing over time and that our current risk management strategy could prove to exacerbate the risk rather than mitigating it. As time elapses, the munitions will become increasingly less identifiable, and their chemical and technical conditions will become increasingly indeterminate, thus dramatically limiting the number of potential available risk-mitigating actions. The conclusion of this investigation is that on the basis of improved risk assessments highlighting the complex risk picture and the strength of the current knowledge, there is an urgent need to revise the current risk mitigation strategy. There are several challenges related to assessing ERW-related risk; one pertains to the level of uncertainty as a result of not only complexity but also the lack of knowledge and relevant or available data. Events that seldom occur and events for which we have highly limited historical reference material are particularly difficult to assess from the traditional technical perspective regarding risk (e.g. a mathematical calculation of an assigned numerical value of probability (P), multiplied by an assigned numerical value that represents a given consequence (C), leading up to the formulation of Risk (R) = P x C). To make informed decisions, we must therefore map the uncertainty in risk assessments by utilising applicable and relevant methodology. Paper II outlines some of the particularities that differentiate risk assessments regarding unexploded ordnances from other, more familiar, types of risk assessments and discusses whether the current methodology can be considered relevant and appropriate. Furthermore, it discusses and illustrates how the current risk assessment methodologies we use today are principally unsuitable for this use; they are also sometimes ambiguous, inconsistent and incompatible, particularly as they do not include an evaluation of background knowledge and associated uncertainties. The conclusion of the paper is that the studied risk assessment methodology urgently needs to be revised to improve the decision-making framework in non-timecritical situations when assessing risks characterised by a high level of complexity and uncertainty (i.e. ERW). The most prominent risk related to ERW is that of an unplanned explosion. Such an explosion could occur as the result of an intended act of terrorism or crime, utilising the explosive effect of high explosive munitions or harvested explosives from such; it could also occur accidentally as a result of the intentional or unintentional disturbance of the ordnance (e.g., construction work, moving, disposing of or rendering safe ammunition). An increasing number of spontaneous detonations have also been reported in ageing munitions, possibly resulting from deteriorating technical or chemical properties. However, only a very limited number of studies have analysed the properties of high explosives retrieved from ageing ERW. Paper III contributes new knowledge to the field of aging explosives, demonstrating that they are still in working condition and that their impact sensitivity does not appear to have been reduced over the last eight decades. Consequently, it disproves the claim that ammunition will slowly become harmless over time, thus providing ERW risk assessors and decision makers with vitally important information regarding aging munitions. Systems thinking can be characterised as a conceptual framework for viewing interactions and the whole system rather than isolated parts of the system; the basic concept is that an understanding of the ‘why’ and ‘how’ of a phenomenon requires an understanding of the system or context. Paper IV discusses the importance of having a systems approach in ERW risk management, especially when introducing factors that could act as limitations in the system, such as regulations, procedures and instructions. The papers illustrates that without adopting a systems thinking approach, we may end up implementing safety measures and requirements without the effects intended; in the worst cases, the effects can even prove to be negative due to unforeseen negative side effects. Moreover, the lack of a systems approach results in an excessively complicated and bureaucratic intergovernmental process, unclear responsibilities and absent strategic guidance, resulting in a sub-optimal use of both human and economic resources. Paper IV therefore suggests an improved approach to gain better insight into the complexities of managing the risks related to ERW and to better prioritise resources allocated to mitigating this threat; this is expected to result in greater economic efficiency and a more favorable cost-to-benefit ratio. These ERW represent a grave threat in many respects, and the human, societal and environmental impacts can be severe. These potentially lethal explosive objects must therefore be located and disposed of, which in itself involves serious risks. Therefore, various safety measures are continuously implemented to mitigate these risks. Some safety measures, however, could prove to have less than the desired effect, and in the worst cases, some could even increase the risk for both the EOD operator and society at large. Paper V discusses one of these safety measures, namely removing the option to blast-in-place when clearing ERW, and its unintended and potentially risk-increasing consequences.