Whether to attack a terrorist’s resource stock today or tomorrow

Abstract

A terrorist defends an asset which grows from the first to the second period and is attacked. With large asset growth, the terrorist's first period outcome is low caused by a large attack. With no expenditure constraint, the terrorist's total outcome is positive. With equal attack and defense inefficiencies, when the terrorist as defender requires his first period outcome to be positive, the attacker eliminates the asset in the first period when asset growth multiplied with the square roots of the terrorist's and attacker's discount parameters exceed 4/√ 3. This gives maximum conflict in the first period. Growth and the two discount parameters are strategic complements. The range for the attack inefficiency divided by defense inefficiency, which causes negative first period outcome for the terrorist, increases with asset growth. The attacker refrains from asset elimination in the first period due to strength (weakness) if the ratio is below (above) the range.