Developing an Early Warning Tool for Use in Risk Management and Decision-Making

Abstract

This thesis is written in light of recent concerns in the Norwegian petroleum industry about increased risk exposure and lowered safety due to the cost cutting measures implemented in the last few years. The objective was to develop a tool, that uses indicators to be used in the day to day management of the operation, that could be easily understood by anyone and that would show negative trends in aspects of operation that heavily influence the level of safety. This tool would act as an aid in decision-making and risk assessment. A general tool was developed, named the EWT (Early Warning Tool), which uses indicators to show trends in areas where initiating events could result from poor or compromised operation. Warnings are given based mainly on negative trends in these areas. The warnings are classified from grey through yellow to red, increasing in severity respectively. From this, a specific configuration was developed for this thesis. This configuration of the EWT also focused on aspects especially affected by cost cutting. In addition, organisational learning and safety culture have an important role. The indicators are discussed and reasons given for why these specific ones are chosen. Also, maintenance and optimisation of the tool is described and discussed, so that companies can make necessary adjustments depending on their needs and their assessments of the performance of the tool. In the end, it is concluded that implementing EWT or a similar tool is in line with the ALARP principle, as it can provide increased safety at a fairly low economic cost.