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dc.contributor.advisorLandazuri Tveteraas, Sigbjørn
dc.contributor.authorGåsland, Håvard
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-30T15:51:24Z
dc.date.available2022-03-30T15:51:24Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifierno.uis:inspera:88934423:14663827
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988674
dc.descriptionFull text not available
dc.description.abstract
dc.description.abstractBusinesses and people encounter complex problems regularly, which they make great efforts to solve to be able to make the right decision. They hire experts to solve problems and create prediction of the future. Individual prediction is prone to random errors. The concept of the wisdom of crowds utilizes a groups prediction to reduce the errors by aggerating and then averaging all the individual’s prediction. The COVID-19 pandemic has made the tourism demand more unpredictable, and the forecasting techniques based on historical data are less reliable. This thesis will examine if the wisdom of crowds can be used to make accurate forecast about the tourism demand in the region of Stavanger. A survey was conducted to generate a collective prediction of air passengers at Stavanger Airport, commercial accommodation, and Airbnb booking. The result of this thesis found that crowds can predict accurately and outperform individuals in the crowd. However, it’s important that the characteristics of a wise crowd is present. Cognitive diversity and independent thinking are important to get an accurate crowd prediction. A group can give accurate predictions, even if they are inaccurate in their individual predictions. The collective error is significantly lower than the mean individually error, hence asking the group for prediction is better than asking a random person in the group for a prediction.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisheruis
dc.titleEmpirisk Studie av Kollektiv Intelligens
dc.typeMaster thesis


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  • Studentoppgaver (TN-ISØP) [1409]
    Master- og bacheloroppgaver i Byutvikling og urban design / Offshore technology : risk management / Risikostyring / Teknologi/Sivilingeniør : industriell økonomi / Teknologi/Sivilingeniør : risikostyring / Teknologi/Sivilingeniør : samfunnssikkerhet

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