How escape routes are taken into account in quantitative risk analysis

Abstract

If an undesired event occurs is the possibility of escape of crucial importance for the safety of passengers and crew. It is therefore important to have good solutions on escape routes; in this matter is the design and orientation of escape routes essential. If an emergency situation occurs and the escape routes are insufficient, may this result in difficulties for passengers to escape from the area in an effective and successfully matter. An offshore development can never be completely safe, but by selecting the optimum design may the risk be reduced to a level that is as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). However, this requires identification of risk contributors and their assessment, which should be done by using QRA techniques early in the project life cycle (Khan & Amyotte, 2002). It is uncertain to which degree the escape routes are prioritized, evaluated and considered in such a process, and if it is the best practice used. This is due to that there are few requirements regarding how escape routes should be evaluated in a risk analysis in the legislations. This thesis evaluates how escape routes are taken into account in two different risk analyses. This is done by the use of five success criterias; clear description of the installation, simulations, calculations, assumptions and uncertainties. The discussion indicated that there were improvement potentials for how to evaluate escape routes in the risk analysis in order to reach a robust solution. The thesis also discusses whether the requirements to design are sufficient to reach robust escape routes solutions, or not. Some of the requirements regarding escape routes could be interpreted in different ways, and should have more explanations and guidelines.