On the use of risk and uncertainty analysis in conceptual stage of petroleum project

Abstract

Several development scenarios are assessed in the conceptual stage of petroleum project. Among all of the alternatives, a scenario will be selected which forms the basis for further detail engineering and project execution. Uncertainties exist during this conceptual stage due to limited information. Therefore, risk and uncertainty analysis is required to review potential benefit and downside of each scenario. The result from this analysis forms a valuable input for decision maker. Hence, appropriate analysis of risk and uncertainty is required to perform in order to give a broader picture of the decision’s problem. Current practice of risk and uncertainty analysis for scenario assessment in the petroleum project conceptual stage still lacks of scientific platform. As a consequence, the analysis cannot provide complete information on risk and uncertainty faced by each scenario. This thesis presents deep review in the practice and limitation of current risk and uncertainty analysis approach and as an outcome it suggest a new proposed approach to overcome those limitations. Emphasize is given to uncertainty as major component of risk. The proposed approach is outlined based on solid foundation basis and theory. Present work also highlights the study case to illustrate practicability of proposed approach to review petroleum project scenario. It is expected that decision maker will have complete picture of risk and uncertainty by adopting the proposed approach.