Analytical methods for risk assessment and reduction of the uncertainty

Abstract

Risk is in involved in all activities especially in oil and gas industries. It is involved from the day one the project has started. Risk during the exploration phase, the chance that you found only dry wells the company may lose a fortune or risk during planning and design phase, the wrong design has been selected the project will face problems and gradually with maturity of the project. This paper will talk about risk with focusing during planning and design phase in oil and gas industries. Get to know and understand analysis methods will assist in choosing a right method(s) for the job. A combination set of analysis methods will fulfill the objective of analyst process. A study case of three phase separator will be used throughout the paper. In chapter 3 Analytical methods, three well known and most use methods – Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) – will be present in this paper with pros and cons, strengths and weaknesses with suggestions for improvement, what the result of the analysis are, how it can assist you in decision making process and help in select right method according to the purpose of your analysis. Uncertainty is an important factor that we must consider during perform an analysis. Therefore chapter 4 Dealing with uncertainties will discuss about two methods – Bayesians Network and Sensitivity Analysis - that analyse should perform in order to reduce any uncertainty that involved in the primary analyst. The final risk analysis result from chapter 3 will be analysis once again with Bayesians Network and Sensitivity Analysis in order to reduce the uncertainties that may involve.