Geological and environmental uncertainty and risk assessment in the Arctic, how can these be integrated?

Abstract

The petroleum industry is now entering more and more areas in the high Arctic, and this thesis studies the geological and environmental uncertainties and risks related to this region. Risks and uncertainties special to the cold climate are identified and explained. Uncertainty exists during the conceptual stage of all petroleum projects, with uncertainties related to the subsurface, surface, and commercial aspects. In the case of an offshore oil blow-out event the involved events include geological processes down in the reservoir, then fluid dynamics in the well flow, and finally dispersion at sea level causing environmental damage in the effected ecosystem. These events are studied by different scientific disciplines, using different types of models, where the output of one model serves as input to another model. In this study a common uncertainty analysis framework is identified and explained as an attempt on combining different scientific disciplines into one unifying model. The main focus of an environmental risk analysis is to identify, evaluate, select, and implement actions to reduce the risk that can lead to environmental consequences. Arctic Canada and Norway are used as examples of how the governments are handling these issues related to hydrocarbon exploration in the Arctic. Both countries have common guidelines that all companies have to follow when exploring for hydrocarbons in these areas.