Prospect for Norwegian Salmon in Brazil: A Market Integration Analysis

Abstract

Norwegian seafood production-expansion mean looking for additional markets to sell products. In this regard, Brazil has been pointed out as one potential new market for Norwegian salmon. There are two main reasons for this: Norway already have a long history of major trade with Brazil, and two, Brazil have already been importing salmon for some years from Chile. If salmon in that time have become an integrated part of the Brazilian fish market it could mean a smoother and less risky entry for Norwegian salmon exporters. In this thesis I apply three different, but in many regards similar, statistical techniques to look for long-term bivariate relationship between the price of salmon and 9 other local groups of fish sold locally in the Brazilian fish market. The total of 10 data series, of which these prices make up, span a period of roughly 4.5 years from February 2014 to July 2018. The results from all three tests point toward the same conclusion, that salmon is an integrated part of the Brazilian fish market. In addition, there is statistical evidence to suggest that the price of salmon could be influencing the price of local species in the long-run.