An enhanced understanding of rare, surprising and extreme events

Abstract

Dragon-kings, black swans, grey swans and perfect storms are metaphors used to describe rare, surprising and extreme events. These metaphors are commonly referred to in both scientific and non-scientific literature, at times interchangeably. Although much effort has been made to enhance the understanding of these concepts, their meaning and relationship has not been sufficiently clarified from a risk science perspective.

The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of rare, surprising and extreme events by clarifying the meaning of and relationship between some of the most commonly applied metaphors for such events: black swans, grey swans, perfect storms and dragon-kings. Furthermore, the aim is to use this enhanced understanding to provide new insights into how events reflected by these metaphors can be managed.