| dc.description.abstract | Ammonia has great importance to our daily lives – it is used in household cleaning products and to make agricultural fertilizers. Recently it has attracted attention from the energy sector, since it can be used as a renewable, CO2 neutral fuel, either directly or as a storage form of hydrogen (another renewable, CO2 neutral fuel). Green ammonia production is a proven technology that uses air, water, and renewable, CO2 neutral energy (e.g., wind, solar, or geothermal power) to generate ammonia. The entire production chain of green ammonia can be located onshore or offshore. The goal of this thesis is to generate useful insight to support the decision on whether an energy company should invest offshore green ammonia plant.
For achieving this goal, we develop a decision analysis framework for offshore green ammonia production. In this framework, we use an influence diagram to frame the decision problem. Through a literature review we identify key, relevant uncertainties and their ranges. We formulate economic models for offshore green ammonia production, use sensitivity analysis to identify material uncertainties, and perform Monte Carlo simulation to assess the economic, in terms of net present value (NPV), uncertainty of offshore green ammonia production. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation results, we develop statistical models for assessing the probability of an offshore green ammonia project being profitable (NPV > 0), given any daily production capacity and cost of an offshore platform.
We conclude that offshore green ammonia could be economically viable if certain preconditions are met (these are described later in the thesis). Therefore, it is worth carrying out further inquiries and research, as detailed elsewhere in this thesis.
This thesis develops a novel decision analysis framework for supporting a decision on whether to invest in an offshore green ammonia project, relevant and material uncertainties are identified, and a method to assess the probability of an offshore green ammonia plant being profitable. | |
