On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts

Abstract

Different metaphors have been introduced to reflect the occurrence of rare and surprising types of events with extreme impacts, including black swans, grey swans and dragon-kings. Despite considerable research on clarifying the meaning of these concepts, their relationship still remains unclear. The present paper aims to meet this challenge, by reviewing current definitions and interpretations found in the literature and referred to in practice, analysing these definitions and interpretations, and providing a structure for improved understanding of the differences and similarities between the various metaphors. The paper also discusses some of the implications the use of these concepts has for risk management and decision-making.