Estimating Salmon Price Rise Due to the Increased Presence of Lice Caused by Global Warming: A Petri Net Based Approach

Abstract

This paper describes a conceptual model to estimate how global warming will lead to increased salmon aquaculture costs due to the increased presence of salmon lice (which are known to favour warmer climates). Usually, analytical models are used for this kind of simulation. However, this paper presents a Petri Net model for this purpose, with the expectation that the Petri net modules can clearly identify the different stages of the salmon aquaculture. The Petri net model also incorporates a neural network to learn from the data fed into the model. Hence, the authors present the model as a conceptual model of assistance to those who want to build advanced models. However, the simulations run with this model took an unexpectedly long time; the long simulation time makes Petri Net’s application for modelling this type of problems questionable.