Climate change and small pelagic fish price volatility

Abstract

Price volatility, an indicative measure of price uncertainty, is an important factor influencing fisheries cost, income, food security, and pressure on fish stocks. An increase in price volatility means that prices are varying more, making it more difficult to adjust the activities accordingly. This paper explores price volatility changes for the small pelagic fish—a key group for food security—related to the potential outcomes of climate change, such as tropical widening. With the tropicalization of temperate and polar marine ecosystems due to species composition changes, one would expect that overall price volatility for the small pelagics may be reduced over time because volatility in the tropical region is on average the lowest. However, we find an empirical evidence that price volatility for small pelagic species has increased relatively in the tropical and sub-polar regions beyond what can be explained by changes in landing levels and the variation in the landings.