Threat communication grounded in science: Bridging the gap between Intelligence public threat communication and Risk science

Abstract

In recent years, Norwegian intelligence agencies have communicated intelligence to the public as part of their threat communication programme. After several terrorist acts, the public discourse has raised concerns regarding the success of the intelligence threat communication. Because the field of public threat communication is a rather new intelligence practice, this thesis aims to compare the contemporary approach to the risk communication field. The data were collected by triangulation of observation, collection of online communication and qualitative interviews. The interviews were carried out with four intelligence employees in the Norwegian Police Security Service and the Norwegian Intelligence Service, in addition to two journalists from national news media. The contemporary intelligence approach gives little weight to uncertainty and supportive evidence because of the need to protect their sources, capabilities and methods. Furthermore, a dissented practice on whether probability should be communicated to the public was found. When probability was communicated, this was done in an inconsistent and ineffective manner, promoting ambiguous interpretations by the recipients. This thesis presents several recommendations for bridging the gap between the contemporary intelligence approach and risk science. The risk science approach gives more weight to uncertainties, portrays probability in a more consistent manner and suggests a deeper understanding of how the intended audience perceive the risks.