Risk science applied to major risk events in history

Abstract

Major risk events in history are often labeled as black swans or as unforeseeable given the risk policies and procedures existing at the time. Hindsight suggests that many of these events could have been foreseeable. This article explores past risk events, (1) analyzes how risk science principles apply to those events, and (2) studies gaps and opportunities for risk science using the lenses of consequences, uncertainty, and knowledge as they relate to evidence used for risk assessment prior to the risk event. New insights are obtained, relating to general foundational risk science issues and a classification system for characterizing the integrity and quality of evidence in risk studies. The analysis results are used to identify how risk science approaches contribute to the overall management of risk and societal safety, and where improvements can be obtained.