| dc.description.abstract | This thesis develops a decision-support formula for water resource management in the Drammensvassdraget region, aimed at balancing electricity generation and flood risk mitigation. By leveraging historical data and statistical analyses, the formula quantifies flood and energy shortage risks without relying on predictive forecasting. Sensitivity analyses reveal that flood risk is highly sensitive to seasonal and density adjustments, while energy shortage risk is moderately sensitive, especially to seasonal factors.
Key findings indicate the formula's practical utility in real-world scenarios, particularly in helping operators make informed water resource management decisions. By providing a quantitative basis for balancing electricity generation and flood risk.
The research underscores the formula's strengths, including its robust statistical foundation and practical applicability. However, limitations such as reliance on historical data and the exclusion of immediate weather forecasts are acknowledged. The research emphasizes the need for expert judgment in interpreting the risk values produced by the formula, particularly under extreme conditions.
Overall, this thesis is yet another tool to the field of water resource management, offering a comprehensive decision-support tool that integrates historical data, regulatory constraints, and seasonal variations. | |