Suggested improvements for ship-installation collision risk models to reflect current collision avoidance systems

Abstract

Accurate quantification of risks for vessel-to-platform collisions has been a goal of the petroleum industry for many years; however, technological advances in collision avoidance systems have not been reflected in current models. Additionally, new modeling theories have been developed which capture the complexities of modern socio-technical systems. This paper recommends that a new collision model be developed to reflect current collision avoidance systems. Today’s navigation tools Current models for collision probability between platforms and passing vessels were developed prior to the rapid expansion of GPS, electronic charts and AIS. Causal factors of ship- platform collisions Accidents are often the result of multiple factors. Causal factors considered by current models are still very relevant today; but, because voyage planning procedures have changed in response to new technology, causal factors may have changed as well. Barriers to prevent collisions with platforms Technological advances have enhanced detection and communication barriers to prevent collisions. GPS and electronic charts offer the vessel’s navigator improved situational awareness. With AIS, both the vessel and the platform are able to detect each other faster at a distance of approximately 40 nautical miles, compared to the 12 nautical mile radius offered by conventional radar. Alternative modeling theories Today’s accident models are based on fault trees and event trees. They provide a sequence of events that must occur prior to a collision. As technology improves and the complexity of socio-technical systems increases, these models will become less relevant. Suggested structure for a revised collision risk model Flexible simulation software is available and should be utilized to model the complexity behind a vessel-platform collision. The suggested structure presented in this paper starts with four main systems: the vessel, the platform, VTS, and external conditions.