The time dimension in Risk Assessments: An evaluation of how the time dimension is considered in risk assessments, with possible recommendations for how it could have been considered
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3013342Utgivelsesdato
2022Metadata
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- Studentoppgaver (TN-ISØP) [1410]
Sammendrag
Considerations of time are already present in risk assessments. However, there is little formalguidance on how the time considerations can be explicitly stated in the analysis. Often, thejudgements/considerations of time are made implicitly by the risk analyst, which in turn couldmake the decision basis for decision-makers unclear. By making considerations of time explicitand formalized in risk analysis, we could improve clarity in the risk assessment, and strengthenthe decision basis for the selection of suitable risk management strategies.Based on Logan et al. (2021), this thesis will present a table for linking time considerationsto risk management strategies, which can be used as a simple guide in the selection of riskmanagement strategy, depending on the type of risk problem in the analysis.Both the time formalization and the table for evaluating the time dimension in riskassessments will be used to evaluate the time considerations in one case of the drilling of anexploration well, and one for considering earthquake risk in a Haitian village. The table willsubsequently be used to suggest how time could have been considered in both cases.The suggestions on formalization of the temporal dimension represent incrementalimprovements in the foundations for risk analysis, which can be considered as consisting of anapplied part (A) and a generic part (B). The reasoning in this thesis is that we can strengthenthe risk knowledge produced in the applied part by improving the concepts, theories, modelsand frameworks in the generic part.There would be a need for future research to further investigate how the temporalconsiderations can benefit risk management strategies. However, risk analysis should benefittoday from having a clear and formalized framework for how time considerations is considered.