| dc.description.abstract | Considerations of time are already present in risk assessments. However, there is little formal
guidance on how the time considerations can be explicitly stated in the analysis. Often, the
judgements/considerations of time are made implicitly by the risk analyst, which in turn could
make the decision basis for decision-makers unclear. By making considerations of time explicit
and formalized in risk analysis, we could improve clarity in the risk assessment, and strengthen
the decision basis for the selection of suitable risk management strategies.
Based on Logan et al. (2021), this thesis will present a table for linking time considerations
to risk management strategies, which can be used as a simple guide in the selection of risk
management strategy, depending on the type of risk problem in the analysis.
Both the time formalization and the table for evaluating the time dimension in risk
assessments will be used to evaluate the time considerations in one case of the drilling of an
exploration well, and one for considering earthquake risk in a Haitian village. The table will
subsequently be used to suggest how time could have been considered in both cases.
The suggestions on formalization of the temporal dimension represent incremental
improvements in the foundations for risk analysis, which can be considered as consisting of an
applied part (A) and a generic part (B). The reasoning in this thesis is that we can strengthen
the risk knowledge produced in the applied part by improving the concepts, theories, models
and frameworks in the generic part.
There would be a need for future research to further investigate how the temporal
considerations can benefit risk management strategies. However, risk analysis should benefit
today from having a clear and formalized framework for how time considerations is considered. | |
