When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective
Peer reviewed, Journal article
Published version
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3115892Utgivelsesdato
2023-12Metadata
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Originalversjon
Aven, T. (2023) When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective. Journal of Risk Research, 26(12), 1396-1407 10.1080/13669877.2023.2288011Sammendrag
In society, there is often an ‘official view’ – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view’s policy implementation. There is often considerable pressure to dismiss these alternatives. Reference to conspiracy theories is commonly used to ensure such dismissal. This paper discusses the issue of when an alternative hypothesis or theory can and should be dismissed. New insights are provided by taking a risk and uncertainty science perspective. This perspective clarifies the understanding of and relationships between fundamental concepts relevant to this discussion, such as plausibility, knowledge, uncertainty and probability (likelihood), and what are proper measurements and characterizations of these concepts. A set of criteria is developed to be used as a checklist for what aspects to consider when evaluating such alternatives.