When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective

Abstract

In society, there is often an ‘official view’ – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view’s policy implementation. There is often considerable pressure to dismiss these alternatives. Reference to conspiracy theories is commonly used to ensure such dismissal. This paper discusses the issue of when an alternative hypothesis or theory can and should be dismissed. New insights are provided by taking a risk and uncertainty science perspective. This perspective clarifies the understanding of and relationships between fundamental concepts relevant to this discussion, such as plausibility, knowledge, uncertainty and probability (likelihood), and what are proper measurements and characterizations of these concepts. A set of criteria is developed to be used as a checklist for what aspects to consider when evaluating such alternatives.