Blar i Vitenskapelige publikasjoner (TN-ISØP) på forfatter "Aven, Terje"
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On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts
Glette-Iversen, Ingrid; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021-03)Different metaphors have been introduced to reflect the occurrence of rare and surprising types of events with extreme impacts, including black swans, grey swans and dragon-kings. Despite considerable research on clarifying ... -
On when to base event trees and fault trees on probability models and frequentist probabilities in quantitative risk assessments
Aven, Terje (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2012)This paper discusses the analysis approach when using event trees and fault trees in a quantitative risk assessment context. The basic question raised is when to introduce probability models and frequentist probabilities ... -
The reliability science: Its foundation and link to risk science and other sciences
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021-06)Several authors have recently questioned whether reliability is a science and a new science. The current paper follows up this discussion. It is argued that reliability is indeed a science and it is important that it is ... -
Risk analysis under attack: How risk science can address the legal, social, and reputational liabilities faced by risk analysts
Thekdi, Shital A.; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)The role of the risk analyst is critical in understanding and managing uncertainty. However, there is another type of uncertainty that is rarely discussed: The legal, social, and reputational liabilities of the risk analyst. ... -
A risk and safety science perspective on the precautionary principle
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)The precautionary principle is strongly debated as a policy for handling risk and safety concerns. It is commonly claimed that the principle is paralyzing, unscientific and promotes a culture of irrational fear. The risk ... -
Risk literacy : Foundational issues and its connection to risk science
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023-09)A new research area is developing, risk literacy. The term “risk literacy” basically refers to one's ability to understand and evaluate risk, in order to support and make appropriate decisions. In this article, we discuss ... -
Risk science applied to major risk events in history
Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Major risk events in history are often labeled as black swans or as unforeseeable given the risk policies and procedures existing at the time. Hindsight suggests that many of these events could have been foreseeable. This ... -
Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020-07)This article aims to demonstrate that risk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about—its foundation ... -
A risk science perspective on liability/guilt and uncertainty judgements in courts
Aven, Terje; Flage, Roger (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)This article aims to provide new insights about risk and uncertainty in law contexts, by incorporating ideas and principles of contemporary risk science. The main focus is on one particular aspect of the law: its operation ... -
A risk science perspective on the discussion concerning Safety I, Safety II and Safety III
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021-09)Recently, there has been a discussion in the safety science community concerning the validity of basic approaches to safety, referred to as Safety I, Safety II and Safety III, with Erik Hollnagel and Nancy Leveson in leading ... -
A risk science perspective on vaccines
Glette-Iversen, Ingrid; Aven, Terje; Flage, Roger (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Vaccines can be seen as one of the greatest successes in modern medicine. Good examples are the vaccines against smallpox, polio, and measles. Unfortunately, vaccines can have side effects, but the risks are considered by ... -
The strong power of standards in the safety and risk fields: A threat to proper developments of these fields?
Aven, Terje; Ylönen, Marja (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)Standards like ISO 31000 on risk management are increasingly influencing the risk and safety fields, despite rather strong criticism concerning their quality. In this paper, we perform a thorough discussion of the application ... -
Three influential risk foundation papers from the 80s and 90s: Are they still state-of-the-art?
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020-01)Three of the most influential scientific works in the risk field, at least in the engineering environment, are Stan Kaplan and John Garrick's paper from 1981 on risk quantification, George Apostolakis’ paper on probability ... -
Understanding the implications of low knowledge and high uncertainty in risk studies
Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023-11)Risk analysis has existed for thousands of years and will continue to grow in importance across professions and industries. Of special importance is the need to understand and manage risk when there is low knowledge and ... -
When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023-12)In society, there is often an ‘official view’ – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view’s policy implementation. There is often considerable ...