Blar i Vitenskapelige publikasjoner (TN-ISØP) på forfatter "Aven, Terje"
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Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: The case of geohazard assessments
Chivata Cardenas, Ibsen; Aven, Terje; Flage, Roger (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining ... -
Bayesian analysis: Critical issues related to its scope and boundaries in a risk context
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020-12)Bayesian analysis constitutes an important pillar for assessing and managing risk, but it also has some weaknesses and limitations. The main aims of the present paper are to summarize the scope and boundaries of Bayesian ... -
Cases of real-life policies related to risk: how can they enhance risk analysis and risk science
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)Policies on risk constitute a core topic of risk analysis and risk science, and it is common at risk conferences to present real-life cases of such policies, for example related to the handling of climate change and ... -
The cautionary principle in risk management: Foundation and practical use
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)The precautionary principle is well known among scientists, politicians and the public in general. However, the closely related and broader cautionary principle is not so often referred to. Whereas the precautionary principle ... -
A classification system for characterizing the integrity and quality of evidence in risk studies
Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Risk management requires a balance between knowledge and values. Knowledge consists of justified beliefs and evidence, with evidence including data, assumptions, and models. While quality and integrity of evidence are ... -
Combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment
Flage, Roger; Dubois, Didier; Aven, Terje (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016-03)For risk assessment to be a relevant tool in the study of any type of system or activity, it needs to be based on a framework that allows for jointly analyzing both unique and repetitive events. Separately, unique events ... -
The concept of plausibility in a risk analysis context: Review and clarifications of defining ideas and interpretations
Glette-Iversen, Ingrid; Aven, Terje; Flage, Roger (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)The plausibility concept has gained increasing attention in recent years in risk analysis settings. A number of definitions exist, most of which interpret plausibility as an expression of uncertainty. The concept is ... -
A conceptual foundation for assessing and managing risk, surprises and black swans
Aven, Terje (Chapter, 2017)This chapter presents and discusses some recent advances in the risk field, linked to the conceptualisation of risk and specifically addressing unforeseen events, surprises and so-called black swans. It shows how the ... -
The COVID-19 pandemic: how can risk science help?
Aven, Terje; Bouder, Frederic Emmanuel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020-04)This paper reflects on how risk science, with its concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models, can support the actual assessments, communication and handling of the vulnerabilities and risks related to the Coronavirus ... -
Creating conditions for critical trust– How an uncertainty-based risk perspective relates to dimensions and types of trust.
Fjæran, Lisbet; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020-10)Although some disagreement about the strength of the relationship, it is generally agreed within risk research, that trust plays a central role in shaping risk perception and risk responses. Over recent decades, risk ... -
Extending and improving current frameworks for risk management and decision-making: A new approach for incorporating dynamic aspects of risk and uncertainty
Glette-Iversen, Ingrid; Flage, Roger; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)In recent decades, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of risk-informed decision-making, and the use of risk assessments to support decisions is a core principle in current frameworks and standards for ... -
A framework for understanding risk based on the concepts of ontology and epistemology
Ylönen, Marja Katariina; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Two fundamental philosophical concepts of social science are ontology (idealism and realism), relating to what reality is, and epistemology (epistemological realism, epistemological idealism), relating to how one can obtain ... -
How the distinction between general knowledge and specific knowledge can improve the foundation and practice of risk assessment and risk-informed decision-making
Aven, Terje; Kristensen, Vidar (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)There is an increasing awareness and recognition of the importance of reflecting knowledge and lack of knowledge in relation to the understanding, assessment and management of risk. Substantial research work has been ... -
How the risk science can help us establish a good safety culture
Aven, Terje; Ylönen, Marja (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021-01)This paper is about how we can make further sense of the safety culture concept in safety and risk management. Safety culture is here understood as shared beliefs, norms, values, practices and structures, with respect to ... -
Marine geohazards exposed: Uncertainties involved
Chivata Cardenas, Ibsen; Flage, Roger; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)By exhaustively reviewing the literature related to marine geohazards, this paper reports on their uncertainties. Examples of marine geohazards include submarine landslides, fluid flows in the underground, scour events, ... -
A new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context
Ylönen, Marja Katariina; Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023-02)This paper concerns intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context. Intelligence here refers to the collection, sharing, processing, analysis and dissemination of information on threats, related ... -
On how to characterize and confront misinformation in a risk context
Aven, Terje; Thekdi, Shital A. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)Misinformation is one of the largest challenges for risk assessment and communication. However, the term misinformation in relation to risk has not yet been clearly interpreted by the risk field. Basic definitions of ... -
On how to conceptualise and describe risk
Aven, Terje (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2011)A number of definitions and interpretations of the risk concept exist. Many of these are probabilitybased. In this paper we present and discuss a structure for characterising the definitions, which is founded on a clear ... -
On Some Foundational Issues Concerning the Relationship Between Risk and Resilience
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021-10)“Risk” and “resilience” are both terms with a long history, but how they are related and should be related are strongly debated. This article discusses the appropriateness of a perspective advocated by an active “resilience ... -
On the gap between theory and practice in defining and understanding risk
Aven, Terje (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023-09)The risk concept is used in all types of situations and applications, ranging from technology to medicine and security issues. Many definitions of the concept exist, and there is an ongoing discussion on what is the most ...