Exposure to the Chinese Yuan: An analysis of United States and European sectors

Abstract

This paper studies the exposure of United States and European sectors to the Chinese Yuan. The research is conducted by using the methodological framework of OLS and MLS regression analysis by segmenting the United States and the European market into 40 sectors and regressing multiple currency returns on their excess returns. The research is focused mainly on the Chinese Yuan. The empirical evidence for the OLS regression suggests that United States sector returns are generally exposed to a Chinese Yuan devaluation while the European sectors tend to gain from it. The research also concludes that the market portfolio tends to absorb much of the currency exposure when controlling for it. The significance of the exposure is thus reduced considerably for the United States, with European sectors being only moderately affected by the inclusion of the market portfolio. In addition to these findings, the paper does not find any systematic change in exposure when a trade pattern shift occurs.