Exploring policy influence on diffusion in an autonomous vehicle context

Abstract

In this master thesis we will examine how the diffusion of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology can be influenced by policy makers. The thesis uses the Rogaland region as its empirical case, and constructs scenarios based on the future developments of key factors related to technology diffusion. The research question follows: How can policy selection help influence an increased rate of diffusion of AV technology into public transit (PT) in the Rogaland region? We explore fundamental theories related to the diffusion and adoption of technologies. Primarily we examine the diffusion of innovations and the technology acceptance model. We bridge the theory of diffusion to our empirical study of autonomous vehicle technologies in Rogaland and identify perceived risk and perceived usefulness as the main drivers of diffusion. We identify four main scenarios with different degree of diffusion, where the transformation scenario is the one who offers the highest rate of diffusion. This scenario requires continuation of the current policies supporting AV adoption in Rogaland. It also requires optimizing communication with the public regarding the objective risk of AV to reduce perceived risk.