Net-zero emissions by 2026: Future scenarios on transitioning the cruise market in Norwegian World Heritage Fjords

Abstract

This thesis has recognized several scenarios based on secondary research in the form of a document analysis and literature review and primary research in the form of expert interviews respectively. As an exploratory research the thesis aimed at discovering drivers that propels the green transition for the Norwegian cruise market. The 2026 restrictions on zero emission cruising in the Norwegian World Heritage Fjords were chosen as the field of research. The drivers recognized have formed six scenarios by using the exploratory scenario planning method developed by Herman Khan during the mid-20th century. In this methodology a PESTEL analysis was conducted based on data collected from online publications for the secondary data and from expert interviews with actors in the Norwegian cruising market for the primary data. The PESTEL was used to find drivers of change in the Norwegian cruising sector that ultimately shaped the scenarios. The created scenarios have proven to be similar in some respects due to interconnections between the secondary and primary data collection. Surprisingly, some scenarios differ considering the various expectations and perhaps also the trust from the actors involved in the transition towards zeroemission cruising. In comparison with the secondary research conducted prior to the expert interviews, the primary research produced data that was broad and challenging to analyze. The expert interviews with actors from different positions in the cruise, consultancy, and research sector have shown that perceptions from all over the cruise sector are matching. Though the connection between these actors and their impressions of the current situation prior to the zeroemission restrictions are far more complex than anticipated. This led to six unique scenarios for the future of the Norwegian World Heritage Fjords based on the discovery of various drivers of change.

This thesis has recognized several scenarios based on secondary research in the form of a document analysis and literature review and primary research in the form of expert interviews respectively. As an exploratory research the thesis aimed at discovering drivers that propels the green transition for the Norwegian cruise market. The 2026 restrictions on zero-emission cruising in the Norwegian World Heritage Fjords was chosen as the field of research. The drivers recognized have formed six scenarios by using the exploratory scenario planning method developed by Herman Khan during the mid-20th century. In this methodology, a PESTEL analysis was conducted based on data collected from online publications for the secondary data and from expert interviews with actors in the Norwegian cruising market for the primary data. The PESTEL was used to find drivers of change in the Norwegian cruising sector that ultimately shaped the scenarios. The created scenarios have proven to be similar in some respects due to interconnections between the secondary and primary data collection. Surprisingly, some scenarios differ considering the various expectations and perhaps also the trust from the actors involved in the transition towards zero-emission cruising. In comparison with the secondary research conducted prior to the expert interviews, the primary research produced data that was broad and challenging to analyze. The expert interviews with actors from different positions in the cruise, consultancy, and research sector have shown that perceptions from all over the cruise sector are matching. Though the connection between these actors and their impressions of the current situation prior to the zero-emission restrictions are far more complex than anticipated. This led to six unique scenarios for the future of the Norwegian World Heritage Fjords based on the discovery of various drivers of change.