Geopolitics and Renewable Energy: A Study on the Implications of the Energy Transition

Abstract

This thesis investigates the potential geopolitical implications of the transition to renewable energy for the USA, EU, Russia, and China, addressing the question: "To what extent can the transition to renewable energy be described as a 'game changer' in geopolitics?". Utilizing a document analysis approach, the study reviews relevant theoretical frameworks and literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy, examining themes of winners-losers, direct-indirect influences, and conflict-peace. In addition, the thesis offers an analysis of Scholten et al. (2020) work on the six clusters of implications related to the geopolitics of renewables. The conclusion reveals that in the long-term, the transition to renewable energy may be considered a "game-changer" in geopolitics, particularly in energy geopolitics. The USA and the EU are likely to emerge as winners, while Russia may become a loser due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports. China, with its commitment to renewables and clean technology manufacturing, may also emerge as a winner. The transition is poised to reshape global power structures, creating new sources of conflict and challenges. However, the continued dependence on fossil fuels in the short to medium term tempers the immediate impact of renewable energy on global geopolitical dynamics.