Investigating the Growth Potential of Norway's Photovoltaic Market: Based on The Bass Diffusion Model

Abstract

The solar photovoltaic (PV) of Norway has been estimated by Norwegian research facilities to have a potential of 7-11TW in 2040. The market forecast displays a substantial growth from decreased fixed costs, decentralization of the market, new technology, and policy changes. However, there are uncertainties regarding the distribution grids capacity, storing, solar radiation, and unproportioned power consumption growth. Factors such as these could hinder the growth, and it is therefore important to have an equitable estimate of the market. Utilizing the Bass Diffusion model, this study analyzes and predicts the diffusion trends of solar PV generation in Norway. The findings display that the current estimates of the market are overestimated. Leading to a ripple effect regarding volatile energy prices, unproportionally growth in consumption, potential increase in power shortages, and reduced competency in solar power generation.