Unveiling the Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Patterns in Merchandise and Agriculture: A Gravity Model Approach
Master thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3088429Utgivelsesdato
2023Metadata
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- Studentoppgaver (Business) [1144]
Beskrivelse
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Sammendrag
This thesis examines the effect of determinants on agriculture and merchandise trade to better understand the different trade patterns they exhibit. Furthermore, we look at how the patterns differ at a disaggregated sub-geographical level with North and South trade. Using the gravity model of trade, we find that GDP and geographical variables align with the overarching theory and empirical literature. On the other hand, cultural factors mentioned in the literature are shown to be a highly significant part of trade and only exhibit modest effects for language in merchandise and agriculture. Religious proximity is negative for merchandise trade across the board. However, it shows mixed results for agriculture, as it is negative among countries in the same development group but positive between North and South trade. Common colonizers are shown to be more impactful for merchandise, and colony-colonizer links are only positively related to trade if the link occurred after 1945. The links that existed before deteriorated with time as the colonized country gained independence. Regional trade agreements all affect trade in a conducive manner. Compared to their merchandise counterparts, the estimates are more robust for agriculture in South-South and North-South trade. Our findings suggest significant differences in how determinants affect merchandise and agricultural trade. Overall, this thesis highlights the complex dynamics of determinants that shape the trade patterns in agriculture and merchandise as it bridges the gap between these sectors.